Toyota-logo

Orocobre Is Well-Positioned As Toyota Commits To Electric Vehicles

Summary

Toyota Motors releases details around their electric vehicle and battery plans globally; China will remain the key focus in the next year.

Chinese government mandates a 10% conversion to new energy vehicles starting in 2019.

In January 2018, Toyota Tsusho acquired a 15% equity stake in Orocobre which will allow the joint venture to increase lithium carbonate production in Argentina.

Orocobre is now playing an increasingly important role in the global supply chain; details around the Japanese lithium hydroxide facility are still pending.

One of the key investment themes that emerged in 2017 was around the electrification of the transportation industry, from passenger vehicles to mopeds to municipal bus fleets. The transition is being driven by both political pressure to reduce emissions within city centers and consumer preferences. In China, the government is forcing automakers that produce more than 30,000 cars a year to switch 10% of their manufacturing base to all-electric drive by 2019, now less than 12 months away. The enforcement of this policy sent the entire lithium supply chain into a flurry throughout 2017. Battery manufacturers have been racing to build and ramp-up capacity while lithium producers move to increase annual output of the white metal and a flood of junior miners have hit the ground in Argentina and Australia with the hopes of becoming the next producer. The automakers have also announced their strategy for the introduction of electric vehicles.

It is in my opinion that Toyota Tsusho’s (OTC:OTCPK:TYHOF) recent investment in Orocobre (OTC:OTCPK:OROCF) coupled with Toyota Motor’s (NYSE:TM) announcements to increase investment in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing signals a clear commitment to the global deployment of electric vehicles. As a shareholder in Orocobre, I view the equity investment as a game changer as it cements Toyota’s commitment to both Orocobre and the need for OEM’s to secure lithium chemicals. More importantly, the underlying theme is that Toyota has made a bold move into the electric vehicle industry at a time that Toyota Tsusho has moved to increase lithium carbonate and hydroxide production. It is becoming clearer to the investment community how Orocobre is directly linked to the automotive business. These series of recent events will certainly allow Orocobre to separate itself from other players in the lithium industry as it is now operational and fully funded with a key long-term sales opportunities directly related to Toyota Motor’s need for lithium batteries. As a long-term shareholder in Orocobre, I feel confident in the company’s ability to continue growing shareholder value in the near and mid-term.

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prius-battery

Lithium – update on the South American market:

Orocobre’s Rapid Expansion Plans In Japan And The Puna Plateau

Summary

  • Will double production capacity in Argentina and add a processing plant in Japan by 2019.
  • Current assets are delivering meaning cashflow and raising capital through the sale of non-core assets.
  • Well positioned to increase shareholders value over the next years.

In recent weeks Orocobre (OTCPK:OROCF) has provided several updates to the market regarding both the short-term and mid-term strategy which look very positive. The company has outlined several keys points regarding cash flow, lithium production expansion and new ventures in Japan. The company has confirmed that future capital requirements will come from cash flow and joint venture debt rather than printing additional common shares. It is in my opinion, that on the back of these exceptional positive updates, shares in the company represent good upside exposure at C$3.00/share.

Leading the Pact in the Puna Plateau

For a number of years, Orocobre along with a number of other junior explores have been aggressively investing in the Puna Plateau with the hopes to become the next lithium producers. The Puna Plateau is an area of the Andrean Mountains that reaches elevations of 4,000m and spans 1,800km across Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile. It houses the largest proven deposit of lithium, referred to as the “The Lithium Triangle,” and consists of three major salt lakes: Salar de Atacama, Salar de Uyuni, and Salar de Hombre Muerto. The Puna Plateau is referred to as the “Saudi Arabia of lithium” as it holds approximately 70% of the global reserves, making it an attractive area for both junior exploration and large mining companies. However, despite the favorable mineral structure and capital being spent, Orocobre has been the only player to bring new meaningful production capacity to the global arena.

Project Up and Downs

In December 2014, Orocobre announced the official opening ceremony of the Olaroz Lithium Project, which is still amongst one of the few operating lithium brines in the world. Orocobre’s project partner Toyota Tsusho (OTC:TYHOY) has the exclusive off-take arrangements for all the lithium carbonate produced at the Olaroz Project. The project has hit several hard barriers including: currency issues, developing a relationship with the national and regional governments in Argentina, working at very high altitudes, bring all forms of capital into a socialist regime, along with numerous technical and production issues. Since 2013, these challenges have sent the stock and investor emotions on a wild rollercoaster ride.

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BeVault.Residential.Solar_.EnergyStorage

Next generation tech – what will drive home battery systems in North America:

Growth Drivers In The North American Residential Energy Storage Markets

Summary

  • Technology, policy and cost reduction remain critical components.
  • Residential energy storage’s role in Net Metering 2.0 programs.
  • Different opportunities on how to play this emerging niche market.

A combination of low-cost solar PV systems, increasing number of electric vehicles being built, and changes in policies is encouraging the mass deployment of residential energy storage systems. Although the industry is still in its early days, all the necessary components have already begun to fall into place, ensuring a very bright future for the industry.

Until recently, solar PV could only be used to offset a home’s electric requirements when the sun was shining. Beyond this time frame, the home would need to call upon the electrical grid to fulfill the balance of its energy, and when the solar PV array would overproduce, additional electricity would be exported back into the grid. This setup makes it absolutely ideal to go solar.

However, a number of components are changing the face of the residential solar PV market. The three changing critical components are: technology cost, innovation, and policy.

Policy – Across the United States, there is a growing number of utilities which have hit their renewable energy requirements and have begun to push back against homeowners who want to export electricity when they are not home to use the power. Utilities across the board have begun to dismantle programs which incentivize homeowners to go solar. This is achieved by decreasing the value of the exported electricity which ultimately prolongs the payback period of a solar system. There are also a number of utilities which have introduced residential time of use and demand charges or no longer allow homeowners to export electricity back into the grid creating a net zero export limitation. The following are a number of scenarios which are driving sales today:

  • Net Metering 2.0 – Removal or change of net metering programs across the country and various Caribbean islands in order to control PV saturation, grid stability, a fair distribution of transmission cost, and utility revenue.
  • Devaluation of Exported Solar PV – A shift to wholesale or an avoided cost for exported electricity such as seen in muni, rural cooperatives, small and large utilities.
  • Net Zero Export Limitations – Hawaii has been the first market to adapt such standards due to high day time PV load penetration rate at certain feeders which is becoming increasingly common along with many areas in the Caribbean.
  • Time of Use Rate Structures – The implementation of various rate structures which will place the highest cost electricity during evening time frames until late in the evening.
  • Buy All, Sell All Programs – Several regions are moving towards a buy all electricity which is produced from homeowners which seriously devaluates the value of solar PV and forces the homeowner to sell his electricity for less than retail.
  • Residential Demand Charges – implementation of demand charges in the residential rates as first seen on a broader scale in the Phoenix Metro area.
  • Net Metering Credit Expiration – In some regions, net metering credits accumulated are non-transferable and expire at the end of the calendar year.
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Lithium-fitch-1920x1040

Lithium – the next fuel:

Power Up With Shares In Orocobre – Buy Recommendation Reiterated

Summary

  • Olaroz continues to generate significant cash with an outlined expansion plan.
  • Lithium Carbonate prices remain exceptionally strong; growth drivers stronger than ever.
  • Buy shares in Orocobre as stock is significantly off 52week high.

Over the past 4 years, one of my efforts has been on educating the investment community on the importance of the lithium production market. In fact, my first publication with Seeking Alpha in 2013 was on Argentina’s emerging lithium market (see: Argentina – Home to Emerging Lithium Producers). Since then, I have narrowed down my focus on Australia based, Orocobre Limited (OTCPK:OROCF) which has successfully brought to market the Olaroz project in conjunction with project partner, Toyota Tsusho (OTC:TYHOF) (OTC:TYHOY). Olaroz is the first “greenfield” lithium brine project to commence production in several decades). Today, in light of a recent pullback in Orocobre’s share price, I am reiterating a strong buy recommendation with further accumulation on additional share price volatility.

Rapid Uptake in Lithium Products:

Today, lithium-based batteries are now in demand more so than ever due to a growing number of product applications and an increase in battery consumption per application. The commercial foundation of lithium batteries began in the early 1990’s when Sony released its lineup of handheld video recorders. Since then, the mobile phone revolution changed the dynamics for the lithium battery space which was further propelled in more recent years by the widespread adoption of various other consumer handheld devices including: tablet PCs., laptops, power tools, and smartphones. Another notable trend within the space has been the shift towards Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) integration of lithium batteries. It is now common to purchase digital cameras and computer accessories which already have lithium batteries integrated as it allows for various design, safety and cost advantages to OEMs while improving the consumer experience.

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thermal-energy-international-june-2014-27-638

Clean technology companies and emerging trends:

Thermal Energy International – Turning Up The Heat On Energy Savings

Summary

  • My position on what will continue to drive growth in 2017 for this energy efficiency play.
  • Review of the companies recent financial releases, backorder and sales contracts.
  • A compelling, proven product line offering institutional, commercial and industrial clients energy savings.

As global energy cost continue to rise, energy users such as mid to large scale industrial and institutional facilities continue to seek out opportunities which will allow for the reduction in energy consumption. Energy efficiency not only reduces the amount of electrons consumed but also directly reduces carbon emissions. As an investor it is important to identify key global macro level patterns to understand where money will flow in the years ahead which now include energy efficiency, as it is the lowest cost of energy optimization and savings. Ottawa based, Thermal Energy International (OTC:TMGEF) is a unique product and sales organization who is poised to take advantage of the upcoming investment wave in energy efficiency technologies.

My recommendation to investors who have a level of appetite for speculation is buy and hold shares in Thermal Energy. It is my position that Thermal is a speculative investment with potentially high levels of return should the company continue to execute on its current backorder while further illustrating its ability to harvest new partners and build out additional sites with existing customers. Further, Thermal Energy will give investors exposure to the growing level of momentum in the energy efficiency business.

The company is positioned to give investors exposure to the emerging energy efficiency business with a portfolio of proven products that directly reduce fuel consumption for a variety of energy intense end users. Further, the global sales organization is already generating a significant amount of revenue on different continents with a solid backlog and does not require any additional funding to grow the business. Thermal Energy offers investors a proven product offering with compelling cost savings of one to three years, strong FY2016 revenues and strong backorder for the balance of FY2017. Further, the company already boast a confidential list of Fortune 500 companies as customers and a growing list of institutional and government organizations.

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4605440149_f953d91a4f_b

Riding New Flyer To The Bank

Summary

  • New Flyer is well positioned within the North American transit market and continues to invest in its technology platforms.
  • The company has a rather large back order, strong customer base and solid performance track record.
  • The companies and their dividends meet my investing guidelines & a review of what the street has to say about New Flyer.

For those who are familiar with my investments will conclude that I am a strong believer and supporter in the Canadian banking system. The Canadian banks offer dividend investors an excellent investment opportunity because they have a strong track record of delivering dividends while increasing them over time. Outside of the dividends they offer very little risk to investors as they are resilient to economic failure which was demonstrated during the financial crisis of 2008. However, as an investor I seek out qualify companies which meet the same criteria as the Canadian banks, which is: leadership position in their industry, strong balance sheet, annual dividend yielding over 4%, track record of increasing dividends, moderate Price to Earnings Ratio and limited fluctuation in the stock price.

For those who are unfamiliar with New Flyer Industries (OTC:NFYEF), they are a Canadian based manufacturer of heavy-duty transit buses in North America. The company is a technology leader in the space and offers drive systems powered by: clean diesel, natural gas, diesel-electric hybrid, electric trolley and now, battery-electric. Further, New Flyer also operates the industry’s most sophisticated aftermarket parts organization, sourcing parts from hundreds of different suppliers and providing support for all types of transit buses.

Personally, I view this as an exciting niche market space as public transportation will only continue to grow for various reason including: environmental benefits, a shift to urbanization which will drive demand for mass transit and the cost effectiveness over other forms of mass transportation. The business itself is rather bullet proof; during times of economy uncertainty the North American federal governments are dumping capital into municipal projects including transportation. During times of economic expansion governments continue to invest heavily in mass transportation because it is a good political platform which has a positive effect on local communities. Essentially, mass transits is a feel good story with the bus market being the most practical and easy to deploy in scale.

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CHdUE8uXAAA49G2

Investing In The Lithium Oligopoly

Summary

  • Overview of applications and technologies that are driving the next wave of lithium investment.
  • Snap shot of the geographically regions where the top producers operate.
  • A summary of the producers dividends, geopolitical risk, price to earning and an ETF focused on lithium.

Since Sony Corp. (NYSE:SNE) launched their lithium ion battery in the early 1990s the world has been moving towards an increasingly mobile society where consumer electronics have dominated the retail and consumer markets. Everything from laptops, tablet PCs, mobile and smart phone, consumer gadgets and digital cameras have all benefited from the rapid advancements in the lithium ion battery.

Demand for lithium is taking flight

Today, lithium ion batteries are now in demand more so than ever due to an increase in the number of consumer products that are being sold. For example, low cost mobile phones are being widely deployed in third world and developing parts of the world. Next, the numbers of product applications which utilize lithium ion batteries are increasing and several emerging products are demanding more lithium per unit sold. A mobile phone requires a small amount of lithium carbonate while an electric vehicle requires a significant amount of the white metal. In addition to electric vehicles, automotive manufacturers are rolling out various hybrids and plug in hybrid vehicles. Stationary energy storage systems are also gaining significant traction, primarily in mature solar PV markets such as Hawaii, Germany, California, and Japan. As the cost of solar PV plus battery systems fall and electricity rates increase the economic model for these types of stationary storage systems become more feasible without government incentive.

In addition to solar PV self consumption markets there are a number of other applications that are consuming lithium ion batteries such as frequency regulation, battery backup and demand charge management amongst others. A paradigm shift is taking place regarding how the world produces, stores and distributes energy as the cost to produce solar PV has fallen below the cost to procure electricity from grid providers in select regions of the world.

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banks

Short Attack On Canadian Banks Is Overblown

Summary

  • An overview of the current short attack on the Canadian banks.
  • Why the current and potential upcoming short attack is overblown.
  • A short-term strategy for profiteering off of the swings.

In the past months, a number of foul macroeconomic items have taken a toll on Canadian banks which has created a perfect storm for short sellers. The underlying fundamental issues associated to the Canadian economy include an overall slowdown in the Canadian economy, a devastating drop in oil prices, the plunging Canadian dollar, and the possibility of a housing implosion. It is in my opinion that none of these are significant direct threats for the large 6 Canadian banks which include: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE:CM), Toronto-Dominion Bank of Canada (NYSE:TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS), Bank of Montreal (NYSE:BMO), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY) and National Bank of Canada (OTCPK:NTIOF). Secondary Canadian banks focused on commercial lending include Canadian Western Bank and Laurentian Bank of Canada (OTCPK:LRCDF).

First, the Canadian banks have been heavily tied to oil prices which have obviously plunged in recent months. Sure, lower oil prices will not be good for western Canada but I fail to see the correlation between the Canadian banks and oil prices. Further, the Canadian banks are highly unlikely to finance junior oil and gas plays beyond smaller credit lines which would collectively amount to nothing, considering the debt books that the banks carry. In Canada, junior oil and gas plays are financing through public vehicles on the Toronto Stock Exchange. A review of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Toronto Venture Exchange will show that a vast number of public companies are financed through bonds and share issuances. At what point did the chartered banks start financing the oil and gas sector? Do investors actually believe that property owners will suddenly lose their properties and that it will dramatically impact the balance sheets of the Canadian banks? Have investors lost sight into how financially stable the Canadian banks are? It is so obvious that there are few correlations between the two sectors. I simply do not see the economic ramifications of a temporary pullback in crude prices, as it is highly unlikely that crude prices will remain depressed for an extended period of time.

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CIBC

Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce: Next Stop $110?

Summary

The recent pullback represented a good opportunity to open or top up a position in the bank.

Company fundamentals remain strong and continue to improve.

According to analysts the stock still has room to grow.

On October 24th I recommended to buy shares in Toronto Dominion Bank of Canada (NYSE:TD) (see Buy TD Bank on Price Dips and Hold), or TD Bank, as shares in the company had been punished in parallel with the Toronto Stock Exchange. After careful examination of macro level news, it was apparent that the recent pullback was nothing more than a market correction, which in my opinion presented a buying opportunity. Since the document was published, shares in TD Bank have rebounded approximately 2.3%. In that same time frame, shares in the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE:CM), or CIBC, slid to $96/share (all figures in CDN) from around $108/share and have since rebounded to current trading levels around $102/share. This represented a short term trading opportunity, or an excellent opportunity to open or increase a position in CIBC.

Most of the recent negative market news was based on activity in China and Europe so I fail to see the correlation between CIBC and the negative macro news. Of course, any significant macro news will still impact shares in all the Canadian banks, but I fail to see how the macro news would impact midterm earnings. In fact, shares in CIBC are trading at a healthy Price to Earnings ratio of around 13x and the company continues to increase dividends on the back of strong earnings. The recent dip in share price was an excellent opportunity to increase or open a position. Based on a 14x EPS, CIBC would be valued at $110/ share, which represents a healthy return for those that were able to buy shares on the recent pull back. If the stock reaches $110/share then I would consider selling my position that I acquired on the recent pullback.

Growth in Wealth Management

CIBC is primarily focused on the Canadian retail and business banking markets and has recently indicated that they will seek growth through acquisition in the wealth management arena. With the Canadian retail and business banking markets becoming hyper competitive it will be difficult for CIBC and other banks to increase profits from this market. Less notably, Credit and Saving Unions have surged forward in the past couple of years, presenting challenges to Canadian banks at a regional level. In Canada, there have been flurries of mergers and acquisitions within the Credit and Saving Union industry that don’t present a significant risk to Canadian banks, but are surely making the retail banking industry extra competitive.

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hi-canada-assorted-bankcards-852

Canadian Banks Outpace Fixed Investments

Summary

  • Review of interest rates, impact on investments, and an introduction to Canadian bank shares.
  • Saving accounts and government issued bonds are non-ideal against current inflation rates.
  • Review of several banks who offer dividend yield rates higher than current inflation rates.

As the global economy continues to show slow growth rates, central banks have moved to avoid hikes in interest rates. Low interest rates are expected to keep populations, businesses and governments spending new capital, while an increase in interest rates could deter new consumer spending and business cap expenditure spending. From a high level this represents the current situation in America and other industrialized nations. It is in my opinion that the current period of prolonged low interest rates is far from over and could easily carry on to the end of the decade. The current period of prolonged low interest rates bring the possibility of increased inflation which can greatly impact the value of cash. Canadian banks have traditionally been viewed as income-generating investments paying handsome dividends while growing profits have recently seen an increase in appetite for their stocks which is partially related to low interest rates.

As retail investors lack alternative investment opportunities that allow them to beat inflation, they have turned high yielding dividend shares as an option. As a flood of new investment has poured into the banking sector, shares prices have rallied which has in turn decreased dividend yields but increased capital appreciation. In parallel with this market activity the banking industry has moved to continuously increase dividends to keep dividend yields at an attractive rate. Today, Canadian banks are paying dividends which yield between 3.5-4.5% depending on the risk associated with the investment and time of entry. For example, an ideal time to open or build a position in an income-generating stock is during a market correction as yields offered can significantly improve.

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